Informed decision-making is not about being right. It is about using a disciplined process to reduce risk. Organisations operate under uncertainty, with incomplete information and shifting constraints. The aim is not to predict correctly but to test competing narratives and plausible scenarios against evidence, assumptions, and incentives, so that surprises are fewer and recovery is faster when they occur.

Working with multiple narratives rather than a single forecast changes the discipline entirely. The exercise runs as a tight loop: frame the problem, generate narratives and scenarios, test them against data and constraints, then select a provisional course that preserves option value. Success is measured by risks avoided, options kept alive, and speed of adaptation. Not by whether the original plan proved correct.

Eisenhower observed that plans are useless, but planning is vital. The artefact can be discarded. The shared mental models, identified indicators, and rehearsed responses created by the process are what matters. By evaluating narratives and scenarios rigorously, an organisation makes decisions that fail safely and improve quickly.

The Crocrodrome by Jean Tinguely reframes the museum as a platform, not a pedestal. Value emerges through participation, not possession. An innovation model institutions still chase.

Over to you

If you treat your next big decision like a small experiment, what two or three possible stories would you test, and what quick evidence would prove each one wrong?

End of transmission